Are you a real estate investor looking for insights into the ever-evolving housing market? In this blog post, we'll delve into the latest predictions from economists and housing experts to help you navigate the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
1. Short-Term Dip in Home Prices
A recent survey of experts in the field reveals that home prices are expected to dip by approximately 1.6% by December 2023. What's causing this downturn? Affordability challenges have been a persistent issue, curbing the demand for homes. In January, lower mortgage rates temporarily revitalized the market, aligning sales with pre-pandemic trends. However, the enthusiasm of buyers waned as rates inched higher in February.
But here's the silver lining: starting next year, experts anticipate a resurgence in price growth, with an average annual increase of 3.5% through 2027. This rate mirrors the stability witnessed in the housing market from 1987 to 1999 before the rollercoaster ride of the 2000s boom and bust cycle.
2. Zillow's Projections
Zillow, a trusted name in real estate data, offers its own insights. Their latest forecast suggests that typical U.S. home values will experience minimal growth, with an estimated rise of just 0.2% throughout 2023. Notably, the most substantial price declines are anticipated in the expensive California metropolitan areas.
Zillow's senior economist, Jeff Tucker, points out that the housing market is resetting. While early 2023 shows signs of renewed buyer interest, prices are expected to stabilize this year, allowing buyers to catch up. A combination of a significant number of first-time homebuyers and limited inventory should help keep price declines in check. A return to more predictable growth is something that both investors and buyers can welcome after the recent market volatility.
3. Sales Projections
Sales of existing homes are projected to reach 4.2 million in 2023, a modest increase from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in November and December but lower than the 5 million sales recorded in 2022. New construction is also expected to see a decline in sales this year. However, it is likely to play an expanded role in meeting the demand for inventory. Existing homeowners have been hesitant to list their properties, and builders are offering enticing financial incentives to address affordability constraints.
4. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have been a focal point of discussion. The panel of experts expects rates to trend downward after the first quarter. When asked about the highest rates for 30-year fixed loans between now and 2025, nearly two-thirds (63%) point to the first quarter of 2023. A distant second was the second quarter of 2023 at 22%, with subsequent quarters garnering 6% or less. Falling rates have a more significant impact on affordability than falling home prices, at least in recent market movements. The median projection suggests a 6% rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages by the end of 2023.
5. Expert Insights
Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, underscores the changing landscape: "The majority of experts are now predicting an outright decline in U.S. home prices in 2023." Although mortgage rates have moderated and are expected to remain close to the 6% level at year-end, the rate spike in 2022 and the resulting record-high mortgage costs continue to influence home price expectations and market sentiment.
In conclusion, real estate investors should keep a close eye on the evolving market dynamics. While 2023 might present some challenges, there are opportunities on the horizon. With declining mortgage rates and a reset in home prices, it's a market poised for change. Stay tuned for updates as we navigate this shifting terrain together.